Asia-to-U.S. Shipping Volumes Hit Post-COVID Lows—Implications for Supply Chain Timing and Risk Mitigation

Far Point Global maintains continuous oversight of port congestion metrics, blank sailing data, and freight market liquidity. In recent weeks, we’ve observed a significant contraction in shipping volumes from Asia into the United States, with confirmed bookings approaching the lowest levels recorded since Q2 2020. This downturn—while underreported in mainstream supply chain commentary—is materially impacting lead times, capacity planning, and shipping reliability.

Demand Destruction and Carrier Retrenchment

Bookings from origin ports in China (Ningbo, Yantian, Qingdao), Vietnam (Haiphong, Ho Chi Minh City), and Malaysia (Port Klang) have declined sharply. This is being driven by:

  • Inventory overhangs from 2023 forward-buying strategies;

  • Suppressed downstream demand in the U.S. residential and commercial construction sectors;

  • Tariff realignments impacting landed cost structures;

  • Freight rate compression, eroding carrier profitability and incentivizing service cuts.

In response, ocean carriers are aggressively blanking sailings—particularly on Transpacific Eastbound lanes—to consolidate cargo flows and restore rate floors. For example, 2M and THE Alliance have pulled multiple sailings into LA/Long Beach, with Q2 capacity reductions ranging from 18% to 25% on some lanes.

Impacts on Lead Time and Booking Integrity

A misconception persists that lower demand translates into faster shipments. In reality, low booking density is causing a structural reduction in active sailings. The knock-on effects include:

  • Delayed consolidation at origin: LCL shipments and even some FCLs are sitting at port awaiting vessel availability.

  • Erosion of sailing schedule integrity: The blank sailing ratio has exceeded 30% on some Asia-U.S. routes, with increased vessel bunching and inconsistent port calls.

  • Extended port dwell times: Particularly for shipments transloading via LA/Long Beach or New York/New Jersey.

Current average door-to-door transit time from Shenzhen to Chicago via LA has increased from 34 days to 46–52 daysdepending on terminal congestion and rail capacity.

Actionable Recommendations

For developers, GCs, and purchasing departments sourcing materials across the Pacific, this environment demands structural changes in procurement strategy:

  1. Advance procurement cycles: Push POs forward by 4–6 weeks to buffer against sailing disruptions.

  2. Aggregate shipment volume: Wherever possible, consolidate orders to reduce LCL exposure and secure confirmed FCL bookings.

  3. Use flexible port pairs: Evaluate alternate discharge ports (e.g., Oakland, Houston, Savannah) based on shifting sailing availability.

  4. Engage third-party logistics (3PL) teams with live-booking visibility: Static ETAs are no longer sufficient.

At Far Point Global, we integrate direct carrier APIs and port analytics to dynamically reroute and rebook cargo when sailings cancel or shift. Our Asia-based operations teams maintain real-time communication with factories and forwarders to ensure maximum booking integrity.

Closing Thought

The headline risk in 2025 isn’t port congestion—it’s latent shipping volatility stemming from suppressed demand and carrier retrenchment. As U.S. construction firms struggle with tariff inflation and tight labor markets, a miscalculation in shipping timelines could derail critical schedules.

At Far Point Global, we treat logistics risk as an active cost center, not a passive afterthought. For more information on our active shipment tracking systems or to discuss project-specific timelines, reach out to our team at info@farpointglobal.com.

Myles Alexander