Trump Declares U.S.–China Trade Framework “Done”—But It’s Not Signed, Sealed, or Delivered
This morning, former President Trump shook up the trade community by announcing the U.S.–China framework is “done,” albeit contingent on final approval from President Xi Jinping. Negotiators spent two intense days in London working to cement what began as the Geneva truce in May—and the result is less of a grand bargain and more of a calculated pause in the tariff escalation.
Trump himself posted on Truth Social:
“OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME … Full magnets and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied, up front, by China. Likewise, we will provide to China what was agreed to, including Chinese students using our colleges and universities (which has always been good with me!)”
Tariff lines are hardening, not softening. The U.S. will continue to enforce a total 55% tariff on Chinese imports—comprising a 10% base, a 20% fentanyl surcharge, and the original 25% Trump-era duties—while China commits to a steady 10% on U.S. goods. That price structure offers strategic leverage: tariffs are now policy anchors, not temporary tools.
On the rare earth front—which trade professionals recognise as the geopolitical currency of the moment—Trump stressed China’s upfront delivery of critical materials: neodymium, dysprosium, terbium. “Full magnets and any necessary rare earths” upfront signals a decisive shift: access now, not later. The Reuters‑anchored analysis confirms that China has the upper hand—its rare-earth dominance gives it “world’s pain point on trade,” and Beijing is wielding that leverage .
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick framed the London outcome as a “handshake for a framework.” He emphasized:
“Once that’s done, we will be back on the phone together and we will begin to implement this agreement”—but made clear that the framework is not yet in effect, pending both presidential sign-off .
Beijing’s tone offers a cautionary note. Vice Premier He Lifeng urged resolution via “equal dialogue and mutually beneficial cooperation,” but reminded everyone:
“There is no winner in a trade war. China is unwilling to fight, but it is not afraid of fighting.”
Market response has been muted optimism. Equities and bonds edged higher, and May’s CPI at 2.4% suggests tariffs haven’t yet translated into inflation pressure. But for freight forwarders and importers, this stability is fragile—actual implementation depends on customs enforcement, export licensing, and rare earth delivery receipts.
So what’s next?
Trump and Xi must formally sign off before implementation begins.
U.S. Commerce will oversee the rollout—expect fast-tracked rare-earth shipments and softening of student-visa policy in exchange.
Trade watchers should monitor HTS adjustments, licensing issuance schedules, and port-level enforcement closely.
Ultimately, this so-called “framework” is a strategic ceasefire: tariffs remain high, but supply chain relief—especially in critical minerals—and soft-power confidence-building measures (like visa accommodations) indicate both sides see value in postponing further escalation.
For those managing cross-border logistics, customs compliance, and strategic sourcing, the message is clear: this is not a peace treaty—it’s a tactical alignment. Expect ongoing volatility, selective cooperation, and continued scrutiny of sector-specific carve-outs. In the world of global trade, that counts as progress—even if the real test remains just over the horizon.